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Hot spots in the revitalization planning of the ho

2022-09-30

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As one of the key industrial revitalization plans formulated and implemented in China, the petrochemical industry revitalization plan is expected to be issued in the near future. What is the current situation of China's petrochemical industry? What are the difficulties? From what aspects will the plan revitalize the petrochemical industry? What positive significance will the introduction of the plan have for accelerating the adjustment of China's industrial structure and the transformation of development mode, and maintaining steady and rapid economic development? Relevant experts were interviewed in this regard

current situation: short-term volume and price declines coexist with long-term irrational structure

the global financial crisis broke out and spread to the real economy, which has a significant impact on the petrochemical industry. The analysis report recently released by the petrochemical industry association pointed out that affected by the slowdown in the growth of the real economy, the domestic and foreign market demand is weak, and the demand for petrochemical products in building materials, automobile, light industry, textile, steel, electronics and other related industries is weakened. The deep-seated problems existing in the petrochemical industry itself are concentrated. With the superposition of the international financial crisis and the low ebb of the world petrochemical boom cycle, China's petrochemical industry is in a downturn

from the fourth quarter of last year, the domestic refined oil and chemical products market showed sluggish demand, declining prices, and the high inventory of enterprises was difficult to digest. According to the statistics of the petrochemical industry association, the apparent consumption of refined oil in China increased by about 15% year-on-year in the first three quarters of last year, but only increased by 1.9% in October, and decreased by 8.1% and 8.6% year-on-year in November and December respectively, showing the first negative growth since March 2007. The decline in consumer demand led to poor sales and a large backlog of product inventory. By the end of December, the ending inventory of refined oil products in China had reached 12.64 million tons, an increase of 47.3% over the previous year

under the shrinking export market and domestic structural adjustment, domestic chemical products "fell both in volume and price". Figures provided by the economic and Technological Research Institute of Sinopec showed that China's ethylene equivalent consumption was about 21.3 million tons last year, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.8%, far lower than the previous growth rate of about 8%. The consumption of synthetic resin, synthetic fiber and synthetic rubber of the three major synthetic materials decreased by 2.2%, 1.6% and 2.1% year-on-year respectively from the previous increase of about 10%

in September and October last year, the price of domestic petrochemical products fell by more than 40%, and continued to fall by 35% in November. By the end of October, polyolefin and synthetic rubber prices had fallen to the mid-2003 level, and ethylene glycol prices had fallen to the level of the Asian financial crisis in 1998, with a decline of more than 80%. After October, ethylene downstream products such as polyolefin and ethylene glycol in the creep testing machine market in Southeast Asia have suffered a comprehensive loss. The production and marketing of chemical fertilizers have also been squeezed by a large number of inventories, making it difficult for enterprises to operate

under the overall downturn of the market, problems such as overcapacity and disorderly competition accumulated in the rising cycle of the industry began to appear, especially in the chemical industry. In recent years, China's export-oriented economic growth has dominated the investment trend of domestic chemical industry, resulting in serious overcapacity of primary chemical products, mainly relying on exports; On the other hand, the development of high-end fine chemical products is weak, relying heavily on imports, and the investment in heavy consumption bulk products projects is strong, while the investment in fine chemical products projects is low

the energy analyst of Beijing medium term futures brokerage Co., Ltd. believes that the impact of the current financial crisis is still harming the real economy, and it is not yet possible to judge whether the petrochemical industry has bottomed out. In 2009, the petrochemical industry will face a severe test

the planning direction will be based on the current and take a long-term view

the relevant person of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association said in an interview with Xinhua news agency that the revitalization plan of the petrochemical industry will focus on the overall planning of the petrochemical industry, arrange the development direction of the whole industry from a macro perspective, and will not design for a specific product

he said that the industrial planning will focus on the development of China's petrochemical industry in the next three years. The plan will focus on oil refining, chemical industry and related petrochemical industries, and will not involve oil and gas exploitation

dongxiucheng, deputy dean of the school of Business Administration of China University of petroleum, pointed out that the petrochemical industry is the basic industry of economic development, involving many aspects of the real economy. The formulation of the petrochemical industry plan should not only be in line with the current macroeconomic and industrial situation, but also focus on optimizing the development environment of the new material industry. The Ministry of industry and information technology will play a role in stimulating domestic demand through the construction of new projects and boost relevant industries in the downturn; On the other hand, the formulation of the plan will also focus on the adjustment of industrial structure, the optimization of product structure and the transformation of economic development mode from the perspective of China's long-term economic and industrial development

linboqiang, director of the China Energy Economy Research Center at Xiamen University, said that the current economic downturn cycle and the industry trough have made the petrochemical industry perform poorly. However, this industry is a relatively advanced industry. The formulation of the plan should be based on how to make this industry develop more orderly and reasonably, and focus on the medium and long-term plan, so as to pave the way for China's "12th Five Year Plan" industry plan, rather than simply saving a number of enterprises based on the current recession in the petrochemical industry

specific industrial adjustments will focus on each.

insiders pointed out that at present, in order to solve the problems of unreasonable structure in China's petrochemical industry and stimulate the rise of industrial prosperity, it is necessary to strengthen the adjustment of industrial structure, promote enterprise restructuring, encourage large-scale operation, and eliminate backward production capacity. However, different fields in the petrochemical industry should have their own emphasis according to different situations

Dong Xiucheng said that oil refining is the leader of the entire petrochemical industry, and only with oil refining can there be a follow-up chemical industry chain. At present, the concentration of China's refining capacity is still low, and the overall level still lags far behind that of the world's refining powers. In the medium and long term, with the development of national economy and society, there is still a gap in China's oil refining capacity. In the future, reconstruction, expansion and new large oil refining projects will be the direction of China's oil refining industry planning

since the global financial crisis, the demand for domestic refined oil has shown a downward trend. The sharp decline in oil prices and the adjustment of domestic refined oil price mechanism have fully released the refining capacity. The economic and Technological Research Institute of Sinopec Group predicts that the domestic refining capacity will increase by about 40million tons in 2009 compared with 2008, and the market pattern of domestic refined oil sellers will reverse

Zhou Dadi, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, suggested that in the short term, China should further adjust the construction speed of oil refining capacity, closely observe the market for a period of time, and appropriately adjust the speed of oil refining capacity expansion

the relevant person of the petrochemical industry association pointed out that in terms of chemical industry, the plan will support the development of high-end chemical products from the perspective of industrial structure adjustment and upgrading, and encourage chemical enterprises to actively turn to the production of products that replace imports, have high added value and high technology content

he pointed out that the industrial planning will also standardize and design the establishment of China's petrochemical products reserve system, including the off-season reserve of chemical fertilizers and the commercial reserve of refined oil

Dong Xiucheng said that compared with the national strategic oil reserve to ensure the safety of national oil supply, the establishment of commercial reserves of refined oil will play a role in regulating the market, and play an important role in stabilizing market price fluctuations and maintaining stable market supply